Preamble
This chapter emerged from
the more formal Last Photo, Pool Photo work, when we started looking
at weather charts, wind surfing competitions at Portimao, personal
diaries of ex-pats, and the descriptions of temperature and weather
in the Tapas group's statements and Rogatories.
It was soon realised that
regardless of anything else, the wind and weather are capable of
proving - on the balance of probabilities at the very least -that the Last Pool photo
cannot have been taken at lunchtime on 3/5/7and that the curtains
cannot have 'whooshed' at 10 pm on 3/5/7
Both are independent of
any other considerations, and this Chapter can stand alone for this
reason.
The Last Photo -
revisited
Kate states that the Last
Photo, of Gerry, Amelie, and Madeleine sitting by the children’s
pool, was taken, by her, on Thursday 3rd May 2007
“We then sat round the
toddler pool for a while, dipping our feet in, and I took what has
turned out to be my last photograph to date of Madeleine.”
The time in the EXIF
metadata is shown as 13:29, but the McCanns were at great pains to
point out that this time was one hour wrong, and it was actually
taken at 14:29
Date/Time Original
2007:05:03 13:29:51+01:00
The photo shows Gerry
wearing sunglasses, T-shirt and shorts, with a slight sheen of
perspiration across his forehead, the children in sun hats, which are
casting shadows, there are clear shadows cast by the tree, and by the
sun beds.
The edges of the shadows
are sharp, indicating bright sun.
However, the weather
records for Thursday 3rd May 2007 in Praia da Luz tell a totally
different story.
At 1pm the temperature
was 17º C, (62ºF) This is relatively cold.
At 2pm the temperature
had risen to 18ºC (64ºF) Again not hot enough for sweat to break
out on the brow of a man wearing nothing more than a thin cotton T
shirt and shorts.
Across the top of the
figure is a grey bar which indicates the cloud cover.
At 1pm and 2pm it is
shown as 50%
By 4:30pm it was 90% so
we may deduce that at lunchtime there may have been cloud cover
somewhat greater than 50% and increasing as the afternoon progressed.
It also shows TWO
separate cloud layers, one at 540m which then rises to 740m, and a
higher one at 2700m
The record for the entire
holiday week is even more instructive.
Here we see a clear
pattern of the temperature falling and the cloud cover increasing
between Sunday evening 29 April, and the following Friday morning 4
May.
When we consider the Last
Photo we must ask the following questions.
What do we SEE ? What do we KNOW ? And then what can we DEDUCE ?
We see
Shadows have sharp
outlines
Shadows more or less
vertical
Bright reflection from
human skin
Bright reflection from
objects
Sheen of perspiration on
Gerry's forehead
Children in very light
dress
Children in sun hats
Gerry wearing very dark
sunglasses
Gerry wearing a T-shirt and
shorts
Bright and sharp
reflection in sunglasses
Father and children with
feet in the water
We know
The pool was very cold -
all week
Weather for the rest of
the week was cold and cloudy
What do we deduce ?
The photo was taken on a
pleasantly warm or even a hot day.
It was taken when the sun
was more or less overhead. Solar Zenith was at 13:29 for the days in
question. Therefore, in layman’s terms the sun was overhead between
12:30 and 2:30 pm
There were no low clouds
and there was no high overcast. But surely wind speed and
direction depend on other factors, buildings, vegetation. You make a very valid
point.
Wind speed IS measured
about 3m from the ground, and in an open area, for the obvious
reasons that you give. The ground has a frictional resistance, there
are walls, buildings, street furniture, and then hedges and trees,
all of which will act to slow the apparent speed at human level. The wind speed and
direction at lunchtime is given as 7.2 m/s, or a stiff breeze, Force
4, and the direction approximately WSW, or bearing 250
On the map it is coming
in along the red line (the arrow is pointing the wrong way !)
In fact this is across a
large patch of waste land, tennis courts and then the very low wall
by the Tennis courts in the Ocean club, which are protected only by
chain link fencing. The vegetation, although there is some, is low.
As we can see there is
not much of a barrier to reduce the force of the wind. And I suppose that even
reducing Force 4 would only bring it down to Force 3.
Well exactly, and if we
look again at Madeleine’s very fine hair falling across her face,
and her floppy little sun hat, we are entitled to ask whether they
were sitting in any wind at all.
But if I may digress
slightly, this raises another very interesting point,
Let us stick with the
issue of wind force and direction .. .
Later that evening,
around 10pm Kate tells us what happened when she entered the
apartment.
Her first statement said
the curtains were wide open,
and immediately noticed that the door to her children's bedroom was completely open, the window was also open, the shutters raised and the curtains open, while she was certain of having closed them all as she always did.
But later we have seen
repeated interviews, and read in the autobiography, which say they
were tight closed.
but I just noticed that the door, the bedroom door where the three children were sleeping, was open much further than we’d left it.I went to close it to about here, and then as I got to here, it suddenly . . . slammed, . . . . and literally as I went back in, the curtains of the bedroom which were drawn, [demonstrates with both forearms together] that were closed, “whoosh’ like a gust of wind kind of blew them open.
[extract from book] p. 71
Then I noticed that the door to the children’s bedroom was open quite wide, not how we had left it. At first I assumed that Matt must have moved it. I walked over and gently began to pull it to. Suddenly it slammed shut, as if caught by a draught.
She says the door slammed
even though she was holding it, and when she pushed it open again
another gust “whooshed” the curtains into the room.
By 10pm the wind had died
down, and was 4 m/s, Force 2, bordering on the low end of Force 3. It
has also veered to WNW, or bearing 290.
Assuming the window was
open, it is only 1 m x 0.5 m, so half a square meter. The door is 2 m
x 0.75 m so one and a half square metres.
So any wind pressure
entering the room is effectively dissipated over three times the
area,
Now let us look at photos
of the area outside the bedroom window.
What we see is a small
car park lined with thick and high trees, a substantial wall, and
then another wall just outside the window of the apartment
So the argument which
says the effective speed and power of the wind is reduced by
vegetation, walls, street furniture, cars and other obstacles applied
here with even greater force.
This apartment window was
by any standards very well sheltered. En contrebas du parking, protégée par le mur de séparation. And from that we then
have to imagine what wind power or force would be necessary to tear
through all that barrier - and remember the wind is coming in at an
angle across that road, across other areas with high buildings and
thick vegetation.
And the wind still has to
have the force to get in through a small open window, and then slam a
door being held by an adult, and on the second occasion to pull full
length curtains from where they were jammed between the bed and the
wall, or jammed behind the wicker chair, against the wall, so that
they can “whoosh”.
And that wind force,
would then one assumes also hit the Tapas bar around the same time,
and we remember that the bar was encased in about 40 square metres of
clear tarpaulin. Yet not a single guest or member of staff reports
what would have been a deafening sound as those two gusts hit.
The weather reports from
Faro Airport are similarly silent on the point.
So it has been an
interesting excursion, driven by responding to reasoned arguments
that the wind conditions might have permitted the Last Photo to have
been taken on Thursday 3rd, but leading not only to a serious
suspicion, on those grounds alone that it could not have been, but
also to some serious doubts about the slamming door and whooshing
curtain story. There just does not seem
to be enough evidence to substantiate either,
as with so much else in
this continuing mystery.
What is even more
interesting is to note that the McCanns’ entire story involving the
Last Photo, and flapping curtains depends on flat calm and hot at
lunchtime, and high wind at bedtime. The facts are exactly the opposite.
The McCann family, and
the Dossier of Death
A ’Dossier’ was
prepared, allegedly, of ‘tweets’, Facebook messages, and blog
entries, sent to people unconnected with the McCanns
It was handed to the
Metropolitan Police, who sent it to Leicestershire Police.
Both forces decided there
was NOTHING in it which merited closer examination.
It made its way to Sky
News, and to Martin Brunt. He chose to pursue Brenda Leyland and the
encounter was repeated on Sky’s rolling news programme for an
entire day.
Two days later Brenda
Leyland was found dead.
The verdict at the
Inquest was Suicide.
“The McCanns want
@sweepyface prosecuted”, a source close to the couple said last
night. “This wicked person and the other trolls out there are very
sad individuals: he said. “Kate and Gerry hope police take action
against her, and if she gets prosecuted all the better. It is a
criminal act and she needs to pay the price.”
Brenda Leyland did indeed
pay the price. She paid with her life.
There are no prizes for
guessing the identity of the ‘source close to the couple’.
There are also no prizes
for discovering who handed the dossier to the police, or to Sky News
and Martin Brunt
• Jim Gamble, sometime
head of CEOPS, sacked by Theresa May, stated that the family did not
hand in the dossier, neither did they have anything to do with it.
• Sky News and Martin
Brunt said the dossier was handed in by 'anonymous web users.'
• Gerry McCann stated
on BBC Radio 4 that they had no presence on social media.
• However Sir Bernard
Hogan-Howe, Commissioner of the Metropolitan Police, said the McCann
family handed in the dossier.
So do we believe
Britain’s most Senior Police Officer, when he says the family
handed it in, or Gamble, Mitchell, Brunt, and Gerry ?
Your choice, obviously.
The TV confrontation
between Sky News reporter and the deceased Mrs Leyland may be viewed
at https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=qkAzz8Pwdvc where it is headed
Police Investigate Madeleine McCann Family Online Abuse.
In the first part of the
video, from 3;58 to 4:54 there is footage of the person who allegedly
created the dossier which Martin Brunt was to refer to.
This location is in fact
Craiglockhart Pond, in Edinburgh. (55º55’N, 3º13’W)
The possible identity of
the person involved in preparing, as opposed to handing in, the
dossier is less easy to determine, but the following may assist.
The person in the video
uses the expressions
“WE are talking about
materials which are libellous, completely untrue.
“WE were getting
nowhere by reporting it to the sites
“WE were finding people
going online . . .”
This is highly suggestive
of a family member, as we might expect.
What follows are
comparison screen shots from the Sky video, and photos and screen
shots from other sources. All are in the public domain.
Calves and ankles
Hair
Steel bangle
Favourite Colour ?
In addition, Sky chose to
‘voice-over’ the original, in standard English with an acceptable
accent. Listening to the following recording of the likely suspect
might help explain why.
It is suspected on
reasonable grounds that the woman in question is of course Philomena
McCann, Gerry McCann’s elder sister. She is a part time teacher in
Ullapool.
The person who set up and
ran, and may still do so, the ludicrously expensive website for the
McCanns and their “Fund”, (in fact a Private Limited Company),
was one of her pupils.
Philomena - who told the
world that ‘It is obvious that someone with malicious intent went
through that window and took Madeleine from the safety and security
of her family.”
And who told the world
that “Gerry and Kate were in a clear line of sight of their kids .
. . and if they’d come out the front, they’d have seen them.”
Someone used, in fact, to
talking or repeating utter nonsense - because someone told her to.
She is married to
“Quicksand Tony” a skilled photographer, knowledgeable amateur
astronomer, and photoshop expert pervert, who used to post his images
on deviantart.com, quicksandfans.com, deepsinking.org, and possibly
other similarly depraved sites.
It is not known whether
Philomena McCann shared her husband’s perverted interest. It is
however doubtful whether after several years of marriage that she
could remain totally unaware of it.
The question however
remains -
Does she have blood on
her hands ?
1 The McCanns had a
Canon PowerShot A620.
In her book Kate only
refers to a camera in the singular. My camera, our camera. She
clearly states that ‘our camera’ was taken away by RO’B so that
photos could be printed in the form of a poster. Later that night,
when everyone had been asked to leave the apartment, the official
scenes of crime photos were taken by the PJ. On the dining table the
Canon PowerShot can clearly be seen. The photo session and forensic
examination by the PJ took place between 0030 and 0400, 4/5/2007.
The EXIF metadata for the
“Last Photo” clearly shows that it was taken on the Canon.
2 The Canon was retained
by the McCanns, and neither it, nor the memory stick were apparently
surrendered for examination. This camera was in Kate’s possession
early on 10th May. It is not known whether the PJ were fully aware of
its existence.
3 On 20th May Gerry
McCann flew to England, and returned home.
4 He returned to Portugal
on 22nd May, with Clarence Mitchell.
5 Gerry McCann’s
sister, Philomena, also flew out to Portugal on 22nd May.
6 The “Last Photo”
was released through the AFP agency on 24th May.
7 The “Last Photo”
was taken with the Canon PowerShot A620 camera.
8 It is relatively simple
to alter some of the EXIF metadata, including the date and time,
using software freely available on the internet.
9 The EXIF metadata have
clearly been accessed and amended by the AFP agency to include the
description of the photo.
10 Gerry’s brother in
law - Philomena’s husband - Tony Rickwood, is a photographer who is
highly skilled at altering images. It is inconceivable that he does
not also know how to alter the date and time in the EXIF and to erase
aspects of it.
11 Tony Rickwood owns
several cameras, including a Canon PowerShot A480 - a model previous
to the A620.
12 The McCanns lay heavy
emphasis on the importance on the “Last Photo”.
13 Through their
spokesman Mitchell, they go to great lengths to explain that the EXIF
time might be incorrect by exactly an hour. They make no such claims
for any other photo. No other photos from the Canon have been put in
the public domain. In each story the words “her own camera” are
used.
14 The “Last Photo”
is tendered as independent evidence that Madeleine was alive and well
during the early afternoon of 3rd May
15 The time given in the
EXIF data for the photo is exactly Solar zenith (noon) at Faro,
Portugal on 3/5/2007
16 Rickwood is a keen
astronomer, and is a member of the British Astronomical Society.
17 There is a strong
suspicion that the time and date on the “Last Photo” are, at the
very least, unreliable. It is not thought that the image itself has
been altered.
18 Almost all other such
evidence is specifically stated to be uncorroborated by others in the
group, and detailed explanations are given as to why this is so. This
leaves the “Last Photo” as the only independent evidence of
Madeleine’s being alive and well on 3rd May.
19 The visit by David
Payne, and the check by Oldfield do not alter this position. There is
considerable doubt as to the veracity of the crèche sheets, which
contradict directly Kate’s alternative version in the book.
20 Rachel Oldfield’s
statement that she saw Madeleine on the tennis court on 3rd is
directly contradicted, in detail and with some force, by O’Brien.
In her Rogatory Tanner speaks of Gerry having a lesson and has thus
clearly confused this with the Wednesday. O’Brien contradicts this
and corrects this with some force and determination, making it clear
that Madeleine was NOT there on Thursday 3rd May.
Rachel Oldfield confuses
the two days, putting the taking of the “tennis balls” photo on
Thursday 3rd.
Kate, and O’Brien are
absolutely clear that this was not 3rd.
Kate insists that she
herself took the tennis balls photo on Tuesday 1st
Russell O’Brien insists
it was taken on Wednesday 2nd
Rachel Oldfield states
that it was taken by Jane Tanner on the Thursday 3rd.
When the witnesses talk
about Madeleine’s NOT having been present, the style of the
language used is very different from the rest of the Rogatory
interviews. The witnesses become fluent and coherent, and we see very
little of the hesitation, the linguistic fillers of “err”, ummm”;
repetitions of part sentences and so on, which characterise the rest
of those interviews when other aspects of their recollections are
being discussed.
Short discussion.
It is accepted that when
numerous witnesses are interviewed some discrepancies will be found
between and among their recollections. Sophisticated computer systems
now exist to highlight these so that they may be analysed. HOLMES II,
ANACAPA, and others are routinely employed by CID for major
enquiries.
In this case it is clear
that the only person who reports having seen Madeleine on the tennis
court on 3rd is mistaken. The events surrounding that ‘sighting’
make it clear from other witnesses that it is simply confusion of the
day, and may not bear any sinister interpretation.
The visit to the
apartment by Payne looks contrived, as it has no apparent motive. The
differences between what Payne and what Gerry and then Kate report
are glaring, and this reported episode must be treated with extreme
caution.
As has been noted many
times elsewhere, Oldfield is very quick to retreat from the position
of having apparently been the last person to see Madeleine alive. Any
detective will confirm that this is a highly dangerous position to be
in.
SUMMARY
The above sets out the
facts, or some of them, so far as they can be ascertained. References
have been cut back from the original, but are available if any
mistake is identified.
But facts often require
interpretation, particularly for people who are not fully acquainted
with more of the background to this remarkable case.
What follows is one
possible interpretation.
1 The “Last Photo” is
tendered as conclusive proof of Madeleine’s having been in a
particular place at a particular time. The pre-emptive insistence by
the McCanns that the time was wrong by exactly one hour deserves
further consideration.
This alleged difference
between the recorded time and the actual time was reported by the
media as the photo was released. It was not said later after
questions had been asked.
This did not happen with
any other photograph. We know that in any event the other photos were
not dated, but this was never explained, and no attempt was taken to
show how they all fitted into the scenario of the whole holiday. They
are merely presented.
It is of course entirely
irrelevant whether the “Last Photo” was taken at 13:29 or 14:29 ;
12:29 or 15:29
The exact time and date
of the “Play house” and the “Jumping on grass” and the
“Tennis balls” photos are equally irrelevant except to show that
Madeleine was with her family on holiday at that resort, which is not
seriously at issue.
So what is the importance
of drawing such attention to the exact time on the “Last Photo” ?
Clearly it is to do with
something else, which is to draw attention to the DATE.
Given that most people
were previously unaware of the existence of EXIF metadata, this had
to be for a purpose.
And that purpose must be
to show that Madeleine was alive and well at lunchtime on 3rd May.
But it does so in a
typically blunt way, which ultimately serves to do exactly the
opposite from what was intended. We recall that Clarence Mitchell
accompanied Gerry on his return to PdL on 22nd, and so by 23rd was in
control of what was released to the media and the wording of press
releases. Does this blunt instrument bear the classic Mitchell
hallmark ?
2 The “Last Photo”
with Madeleine smiling and happy would have been an ideal choice for
the poster put out that first night. The camera is capable of editing
images, or it could have been edited on the computer from which it
was eventually printed. (We note that the image was subsequently
‘cropped’ before release in another place, and later still the
small part of Gerry’s elbow by Madeleine’s right ear and the
lower part of Amelie's arm were skilfully photoshopped out and
replaced to show the background rock wall).
THUS
http://www.justpamalam.co.uk/gmb//Written_Declaration_brussels08_corr/Slide2.JPG
But it is very easy to
crop carefully excluding the bit of Gerry’s elbow - like this
This would have been a
perfect, charming and heart-rending image, and it could have been
given out on 4th or 5th May, printed and distributed.
But it wasn’t.
In its place what they
used was a very boring photo of Madeleine, in a strange pose, in an
unknown location, on an unknown date. With no explanation.
This one
and we note the pixel
aspect ratio of 1888 x 2350
(See point 6 later, and
work out that this was NOT taken on the Canon)
3 But yet another photo
was released on 4th May, and used as a front page image by the Daily
Mirror on 5th May. It is the full face portrait, which adorns the
cover of the book 'madeleine', and has become the iconic image of
Madeleine wearing a red dress, and showing clearly the coloboma eye
defect on which so much emphasis was placed in the first years.
This one
4 We were told by Kate
that on that day (3/5/07)) at 5:30pm Madeleine was “pale and worn
out,. . .really tired . . wanted me to pick her up . . . so
exhausted.” But on the photo timed at 2:29 Madeleine looks alert,
happy and smiling.
What could have reduced
an alert, happy and smiling child to pale and worn out, really tired,
and exhausted in the space of three hours ? Sailing and tennis might
have that capacity, in the hands of untrained and unprofessional
child minders, but we recall that Madeleine did NOT play tennis that
afternoon, and did NOT go sailing.
5 On the afternoon of
3rd, uniquely, all the other members of the Tapas group suddenly
absented themselves from the vicinity of the Ocean Club Tapas area,
and distanced themselves from the company of the McCanns. All of them
- the entire group with children and grandparent - deciding
simultaneously to go to the Paraiso bar, which is located on the
beach some half a kilometre away.
Great play is then made
of Kate’s jogging on the beach itself, and being seen by the Tapas
group. This is emphasised by some of the group and by Kate in her
book. It has been observed that running that particular beach is
extremely difficult and punishing, the sand being very fine and soft,
and offering little resistance to a running shoe. It has also been
observed that the way to the beach from the apartment is very angled,
and that serious runners prefer straight lines. The decision to
display herself on the beach in this way is thus questionable, and
may have another motive.
6 So far as can be
discovered there is no reference to the Canon PowerShot camera
anywhere in the files.
The only camera referred
to in the PJ files is an Olympus C-50, examined by Det. Con. Martin,
and it is now believed owned by another totally unconnected family.
The only two clues as to
the very existence of the Canon are therefore
• the photo of the
dining table in the apartment taken by the PJ during the early hours
of 4th, where the Canon can clearly be identified by its distinctive
shape,
NOTE: The Modify Date is
clearly the date the French Press agency added their comments.
The pixel aspect ratio is
correct for the Canon Powershot A 620
https://www.dpreview.com/reviews/canona620
We do know however that
twice in her book Kate reports that “my camera” had been taken
away by Russell Oldfield during the late evening so that the poster
could be prepared. That MUST therefore refer to the Canon. And it
MUST therefore also be the Canon to which Gerry refers when he says
that he has no other photos in his possession.
Gerry also helpfully adds
that it is Kate who takes most of the photos.
In her book Kate claims
ownership of the “tennis balls” photo and the ”Last Photo”.
Since Gerry is visible in
at least one of the others, the implication is clear.
Kate took the family
photos.
7 Gerry specifically
states in a signed statement to the PJ on 10th May that he had no
other photos in his possession. The PJ may have relied on this
statement and assumed that he was telling the truth. The sudden
appearance of the “Last Photo” after his return from the UK, with
Clarence Mitchell, and after the arrival of his sister in Portugal,
clearly bearing the EXIF metadata is therefore extremely suspect.
Can this list of facts
ALL be simply coincidences ?
The camera - with the
Last Photo, retained - Canon PowerShot A620
The date of the trip to
the UK
The photographic skills
and knowledge of the brother-in-law
The skills and knowledge
of Astronomy of the brother-in-law
The date of return to
PdL, with Mitchell
The date of the trip by
the sister to Portugal
The date of release of
the ‘Last Photo’ to the world’s press
The pre-emptive and
unnecessary insistence on looking at the time (and date) of the photo
The fact of the total
lack of witnesses to show Madeleine alive on 3rd (or indeed after
29th)
The explanations for
almost every difficult aspect of the story
Or does it amount to
something else ?
In the Chapter Floppy sun
hats and flapping curtains I showed how the Last Photo, the Pool
Photo could not have been taken at lunchtime on 3rd May.
In the Chapter The Last
Photo I showed how it was clearly possible for four clearly
identifiable people, acting in concert, to take the image, alter the
EXIF Metadata, take it back to PdL, and hand it to the person
responsible for putting it into the public domain.
Both Chapters
concentrated on proving what the photo was not.
Here I return to the
theme, and try to establish what the photo actually is, in other
words, when was it taken ? Why is this so important ? Why should we
spend so much time bothering about this one photograph?
It is for this reason:
The initial story about
forced and broken shutters did not last even 24 hours. The “man
carrying child” meme lasted longer until it was picked to pieces by
researchers and then officially destroyed by DCI Redwood. Team McCann
find it impossible to let this go, and it is still shown on their
official website.
The complete and total
lack of any forensic trace of an intruder, and then the devastating
‘evidence’ of the alerts by the blood and cadaverine dogs left
the McCanns in a perilous position. It leaves them with absolutely
nothing to support their official story.
They rely therefore on
this one image.
The McCanns put this
image in the public domain nearly three weeks after the alleged event
as proof that Madeleine was alive and well at lunchtime on Thursday
3rd May. No other images have been used in that way, no other dated
images from the rest of the holiday - Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday, for
example - were ever put into the public domain.
For a close and loving
family, on an exciting early season holiday with little children the
lack of photos and video footage - the Canon PowerShot A620 is
capable of taking video at very good resolution - is, it is
submitted, very significant and very revealing.
But there is nothing. No
video of the children trooping through the village holding on to
Sammy Snake, eating ice creams, sitting on the bed reading, sailing,
swimming, playing tennis, painting, dancing, having ‘high tea’...
nothing !
And that itself is highly
suspicious. So let us re-cap on the Holiday weather.
We have
• Official weather
reports
• Statements from the
Tapas group,
• statements from
independent observers
AND
• photos taken by
independent people, timed and dated, and posted online.
• Video and stills from
a major wind-surfing competition just along the coast.
ALL agree, and ALL make
it impossible for the Last Photo to have been taken on 3/5/7.
As was said a long time
ago, the weather that week was pretty much a washout.
The Algarve - despite
what Gerry clearly believes - is on the North Atlantic. This is a
cold sea, and brings with it cold air temperatures. April and May are
still spring.
When we look at the
statements and rogatories of the group, all say the same thing. After
the arrival day - Saturday - and the first full day - Sunday - the
weather was dreadful. It was cold, and even raining, necessitating
wearing all their available warm clothes; two families at least
saying they did not lift the shutters all week; the McCanns driven
back from the beach after 20 minutes because the children did not
like the cold wet sand.
And it only seems to have
started to change significantly by the evening of Thursday 3rd.
Matthew Oldfield "Erm,
it wasn't, erm, not specifically, it was a better day on the Thursday
than it was on the Wednesday, because we had rain, and I think it was
sort of warmer and bit more clear, I don't remember the, it may have
been a bit cloudy, but I don't remember specifically".
* * *
Rachel Oldfield
“. . probably that the
weather had been a bit better that day
* * *
Fiona Payne
"I actually am
wondering whether we went to the beach at all before Thursday, just
because I’m thinking about the weather and I remember thinking at
the time, it’s such a shame for the kids that we haven’t really
gone to the beach, because, you know, that's a part of the reason we
chose the resort”.
* * *
1485 “The first time?”
Reply “We definitely
went on the Thursday and I think that might have been the first time
we actually did that as a group, minus Kate and Gerry”.
* * *
"And I remember the
Thursday was a bit of a transition day, as I say, you know, with the
weather, it just seemed to warm up, it was sunnier, erm, and it was a
very pleasant evening, you know, it was a nice sunny evening, warm”
* * *
TANNER
Reply “Yeah, I think
err so it wasn’t, that’s one reason why we didn’t open the
shutters to open the window or anything in that room, it wasn’t
actually really hot at all, it was actually quite cloudy in the days
and at night it was actually quite chilly.”
4078 “So it wasn’t
sort of going in the pool weather or, only if you’re very brave.”
Reply "No it was
really, really cold,"
* * * *
Diane Webster
4078 "But Wednesday
stands out to you because you know the weather wasn’t very good?”
Reply "Wednesday I
remember because it was raining in the morning, we thought oh no
tennis, you know, but we did have the tennis later on because I
remember err we were waiting for the courts to dry.”
GM AND KM First
statements
Apart from the Kids Club
and the apartment, they only went to the beach with Madeleine and the
other children once, and only for a very short period of time,
because the weather was unstable, which happened between 1.30 and 3
p.m., when they returned to the club.
GM Second statement
They were at the beach
for about 20 minutes, the deponent and MADELEINE having put their
feet in the water. During this time the weather changed with a cloudy
sky and cold, therefore they went to a terrace at a café near the
beach, on the left, where they bought five ice-creams and two drinks.
* * *
In any event the pattern
is well established
Thursday is described as
“transition day”, the weather beginning to change, with the
evening being rather better.
It was “a bit better”
on Thursday, - but this is in comparison with Wednesday when it was
raining and the tennis was cancelled.
Thursday is the first day
in their collective recollection that the sun had begun to come out.
It was a bit more clear. But still not warm enough for sunbathing.
And so on.
We recall the strange
description by Kate of the whooshing curtains and slamming door, (see
previous Chapter) and note that not one other person records this
significant and major event.
What the McCanns failed
to notice is that PdL is a small town on the Atlantic coast.
It has a small fishing
fleet. This means that weather conditions are, and have always been,
very important to the locals.
This in turn means that,
as with any other sea faring nation, the system of Meteorological
reporting and the keeping of records has become highly specialised
and extremely detailed.
Portugal has acquired air
transport, and Air Traffic records are even more detailed.
Those reports are in the
public domain, and go back a very long way.
And from those records we
can say with certainty that the Tapas 7’s descriptions of the
weather are absolutely correct.
The weather that week was
ghastly, heavily overcast, cold, windy, with rain on the Wednesday.
There was a major wind-surfing competition just along the coast, and
video from that event bears this out.
On Thursday it began to
change. By mid to late afternoon the cloud was beginning to break up,
and by late evening had largely dispersed, leaving a clear and still,
and fairly cold night.
Clear and still - being
the operative words.
So let us now look at
some contemporaneous account of the weather that week, recorded by a
retired professional observer of these phenomena, and meticulous
diarist.
Extracts from
communications (edited)
Witness / Commentator 1
Calendar of Events, and
notes about weather
[This has been heavily
edited to focus on the weather related items]
Saturday, April 28 2007.
Clear skies with warm temperatures for time of year enabled a full
entry in the golf competition at the nearby Boavista Resort. From 1
til 4pm, warm dry conditions. Clear skies at night resulted in cooler
conditions by dawn the following day.
Sunday, April 29 2007.
Another fine day (warm once the Sun got up) but some evidence of
weather on the change by evening. No threat of frost for the
following day due to cloud cover that night.
Monday, April 30 2007.
Cloudy day, but dry and average temperatures.
Tuesday, May 1 2007.
Cooler cloudier weather,
Wednesday, May 2 2007.
Cool, cloudy with sunny spells and moderate winds
Thursday, 3 May 2007.
Weather continues cool and cloudy with sunny intervals, but not pool
dipping weather.
Noticed first evidence of
weather change, as by 7.15 pm cloud was clearing from the North. Just
after 11 pm night sky clear with full moon
I arrived at my apartment
about 11:45 pm. It was a clear dry moonlit night and no sound of
human or vehicular activity, and it was good to reflect that better
weather had now set in.
In fact, the rains did
not return until 14 June.
Friday 4 May, 2007. I
was awakened at c.0750 on a fine clear morning,
Saturday 5 May, 2007.
Weather continues fine and sunny.
And compare the clouds
with the clouds in the photo we reasonably believe was taken on
Saturday, late afternoon, after the families had settled in and were
beginning to explore.
By the evening of Sunday
29th April a cloud bank can clearly be seen on the horizon
Having viewed the
sequence of photos above, the expert and local resident said:
"The sequence
indicates a typical weather system movement in Portugal.
In short, it shows
clearer cooler, but brighter weather, moving down from the North on a
NW wind (the prevailing western Algarve wind) and displacing milder
but wet and cloudy weather as it does so. [The Pictures] of a local
Algarve scene taken on the 4 and 5 May [ . . .] indicate that a
period of clear northerly airstream weather (typically lasting a week
or so) has finally moved in."
_ _ _ _ _ _ _
The Met sequence and the
photo sequence coupled with the evidence of conditions given by the
Tapas 9 confirms a typical Algarve weather pattern; thereby casting
serious doubt on the McCann's date for the last photo. Wind speed is
still the overriding factor in eliminating 3 May as the date of photo
in my opinion. It is difficult to judge the wind conditions from the
pictures on either date, but the evidence of all (on the ground at
the time) consulted indicate that the photo as posed would not have
been possible on 3 May.
However of much greater
importance - is the wind speed and cloud factor.
At 1400 on 3 May, wind
speed is recorded as force 4 with a still air temperature of 17 C.
Although the pool area is to some extent sheltered, with the westerly
direction component the wind would be markedly chilly with a chill
factor pulling the temp down to as low as 15C - definitely not
suitable for scantily clad pool activity.
Of far greater
importance; however, on the photo there is no sign of any disturbance
of Madeleine's hair which hangs lankly below her hat. A hat which,
moreover, is perched loosely on top of her head and would not remain
unsupported in a Force 4 wind. Clearly, the cloud factor on 3 May
would rule out such a photo.
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
(Short discussion about
the photo dated 3/5/2007
Solar zenith - noon - on
3rd May 2007 was at 13:29.
The temperature rises to
its maximum two hours or so after this time.
The photo shows the sea,
which by definition in the Algarve is to the south.
The shadow cast by the
pillar of rock indicates that the sun is to the right, i.e. to the
west.
The time of the photo may
therefore be calculated and estimated using common sense.
It is some hours after
Solar noon.
The cloud cover is
beginning to break up, but is still at least 6/10, even 7/10.
Unless there are other
reasons, people take posed photos when the sun is shining, not when
it is obscured.)
All these pictures have
been put in the public domain by their owners, but for various
reasons the personal details have been erased / redacted, and it is
not intended to reveal the exact source of each, other than to the
proper investigative authorities.
Anyone with sufficient
internet skills can however find them for him- or herself.
- - - - -
Where else might we look
for confirmation ?
This shows an extract
from the ”Last Photo” showing the reflection from GM’s
forehead, allegedly taken on Thursday 3rd May, and a photo verified
as taken on Sunday 29th April, showing a very similar reflection on a
slightly moist forehead.
Conclusion:
What then can we
reasonably conclude ?
On the balance of
probabilities - but moving very close to “Beyond a reasonable
doubt”; certain, so that we are sure . . .
The Last Photo = the Pool
Photo was taken around lunchtime on Sunday 29th April 2007, and was
NOT taken at 13.29 on Thursday 3rd May
It was taken on the Canon
PowerShot A620 - the McCanns’ camera. It was taken by Kate as she
has stated, with Sean somewhere to the side, very probably the focus
of Madeleine’s attention.
It was not used for the
poster, nor was it handed to the PJ. Its existence was concealed from
the PJ by Gerry - when he said he had no more photos in his
possession.
Nearly three weeks later
it was revealed to the world by Clarence Mitchell who drew attention
to the time and date recorded in the EXIF Metadata.
The identity of the
person who altered the metadata, and the person who physically
brought the altered image to PdL to hand to Gerry and Mitchell can be
guessed at with some degree of confidence.
So we conclude that the
photo is a forgery. It tells a lie about itself, in that it
“purports” to be an image recorded on Thursday 3rd May 2007.
It is not.
The placing of this image
into the public domain, with the clear intention that it should be
used to persuade people of its veracity, including Portuguese and
British Police officers, and the investigative and prosecution
authorities of both countries is capable of amounting to
Conspiracy to Pervert the
Course of Justice under English law,
and its equivalent under
Portuguese Jurisdiction.
Much of this material was
presented in Richard D. Hall's film - 'When Madeleine Died?' -
published in February 2016 and is to be found on disc 2, at 25:15
onwards,
or on this video about 2
hrs onward.
